Price Waterhouse Coopers, published a report that in 2050 USA will be ranking 3rd in economic power, while France will not appear in the tens first. The six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th).
PwC, is a worldwide expert company, focusing on audit and assurance, tax and consulting services. It helps resolve complex issues and identify opportunities.
This report sets out our latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP.
Key results include: The world economy could more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth, due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements.
The emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average, and six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th).
The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050.
UK could will be down to 10th place by 2050, France out of the top 10 and Italy out of the top 20 as they are overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively.
But emerging economies need to enhance their institutions and their infrastructure significantly if they are to realise their long-term growth potential.
The analysis also identifies a number of key challenges for policy-makers, including:
Avoid a slide back into protectionism, which history suggests would be bad for global growth in the long run
Ensuring that the potential benefits of globalisation are shared more equally across society
Developing new green technologies to ensure that long-term global growth is environmentally sustainable
The same report, considers the opportunities for business. That include: as emerging markets mature, they will become less attractive as low cost manufacturing bases but more attractive as consumer and business-to-business (B2B) markets.
However, international companies need strategies that are flexible enough to adapt to local customer preferences and rapidly evolving local market dynamics
Since emerging markets can be volatile, international investors also need to be patient enough to ride out the short-term economic and political cycles in these countries.
Jean Baptiste Karegeya