Mu gihe amakimbirane yo mu burasirazuba bwa Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo akomeje kugira ingaruka ku mutekano w’akarere k’Ibiyaga Bigari, amagambo ya Perezida Félix Tshisekedi aherutse kugeza ku badepite bo mu ihuriro rye rya Union sacrée yongeye kuzamura ikibazo cy’uruhare rwa Joseph Kabila mu ihuriro rya Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN).
Mu ijambo rye, Tshisekedi yavuze ko Paul Kagame yaba yarasohoye Joseph Kabila mu bwihisho kugira ngo amushyire ku isonga ry’ibikorwa byo kurwanya ubutegetsi bwa Kinshasa, cyane cyane mu gihe u Rwanda rwari rumaze gushyirirwaho ibihano na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.
Iyi mvugo ifite uburemere mu isesengura rya geopolitiki, kuko ishobora gutuma umuntu yibaza niba Kabila yari asanzwe ari umuyobozi wa politiki w’ihuriro ry’inyeshyamba cyangwa niba kwinjira kwe muri FRN ku wa 12 Ukwakira 2026 kwarazanye impinduka mu miterere y’ubuyobozi bwaryo.
Ubuyobozi bwa politiki n’ubuyobozi bwa gisirikare: Ese ni kimwe?
Hari itandukaniro rikomeye hagati yo kuba umuyobozi wa politiki w’ihuriro rifite imitwe yitwaje intwaro no kuba umuyobozi w’ingabo zirigize.
Mu ihuriro rigizwe n’imitwe itandukanye yitwaje intwaro, hagomba gutandukanywa abayobozi bashinzwe icyerekezo cya politiki n’abashinzwe kuyobora ibikorwa bya gisirikare.
Umuntu ashobora kuba ari we uyobora ihuriro muri politiki, agahuza inyungu z’abarigize no gufata ibyemezo bikomeye, ariko ntabe ari we uyobora abasirikare ku rugamba cyangwa utanga amabwiriza ya buri gikorwa cya gisirikare.
Iyo Tshisekedi avuga ko Kagame yasohoye Kabila mu bwihisho kugira ngo amuhe kuyobora iri huriro, amagambo ye ashobora kumvikanisha ko habayeho impinduka mu rwego rw’ubuyobozi bwa politike.
Ibi bitanga ibibazo bibiri: Ese Kabila yari asanzwe afite uruhare mu miyoborere y’iri huriro ariko atarashyirwa ku mugaragaro? Cyangwa ni uko kwinjira kwe muri FRN kwahinduye koko imiterere y’ubuyobozi bwa politiki bw’ihuriro?
Kugeza ubu, nta bimenyetso byigenga bihagije byatuma kimwe muri ibyo bisubizo gifatwa nk’ukuri kwemejwe.
FRN: Impinduka mu miterere y’urugamba rwa politiki?
Kwinjira kwa Joseph Kabila muri FRN bishobora kugira ingaruka zirenze iz’uko habonetse undi muyobozi w’ihuriro.
Kabila yabaye Perezida wa Congo kuva mu 2001 kugeza mu 2019. Kuba yarayoboye igihugu imyaka 18 bimuha ubunararibonye mu miyoborere ya Leta, imibanire mpuzamahanga n’imikorere y’inzego z’umutekano.
Ibi bishobora guha FRN igishoro cya politike gushya, bikayifasha kwagura imiyoboro ya politiki no kugerageza kwigaragaza nk’ihuriro rifite gahunda irenze ibikorwa bya gisirikare.
Mu yandi magambo, bishobora kuba ari ukugerageza guhindura urugamba ruvuye gusa ku rwego rwa gisirikare rukagera no ku rwego rwa politiki n’uburyo bwo gushaka ukwemerwa n’amahanga bihanitse.
Nubwo Joseph Kabila ashobora guha FRN uburemere n’imbaraga bya politiki, ntibivuze ko ari we uyobora mu buryo butaziguye ibikorwa bya gisirikare by’imitwe yose iyigize.
Hagomba gutandukanywa ubuyobozi bwa politiki n’ubuyobozi bw’ingabo, kuko kuba umuntu ayoboye ihuriro muri politiki bitamugira byanze bikunze umugaba w’ingabo zaryo.
Kinshasa na AFC/M23: Ese hari kwivuguruza mu nzira y’ibiganiro?
Ikindi kibazo gikomeye kiri mu mvugo ya Tshisekedi ni icyo yise umugambi wo guha urugamba rwo mu burasirazuba bwa Congo isura y’ikibazo cy’imbere mu gihugu, mu gihe ashinja u Rwanda kurugiramo uruhare.
Ariko Kinshasa yari yaramaze kwemera kugirana ibiganiro na AFC/M23 mu nzira ya Doha, mbere y’uko Joseph Kabila yinjira ku mugaragaro muri FRN.
Ibi bituma havuka ikibazo cya strategic consistency: niba intego y’u Rwanda yari iyo guha AFC/M23 isura y’ihuriro ry’Abanyekongo, kuki Kinshasa ubwayo yari yaremeye kuganira na ryo nk’umwe mu bagize amakimbirane yo muri Congo?
Birumvikana ko kuganira n’umutwe witwaje intwaro bitavuze byanze bikunze kuwemera nk’ubutegetsi bwemewe cyangwa guhakana uruhare rw’amahanga mu makimbirane. Ahubwo ni uburyo bwa conflict management bushobora gukoreshwa mu kugabanya imirwano no gushaka igisubizo cya politiki.
Icyakora, iki kibazo kigaragaza ko Kinshasa ikwiye gusobanura neza itandukaniro ishyira hagati yo kwemera AFC/M23 nk’umufatanyabikorwa mu biganiro no kuyishinja kuba igikoresho cy’inyungu z’amahanga.
Kinshasa na AFC/M23: Ese hari kwivuguruza mu nzira y’ibiganiro?
Mu rwego rwa disikuru, amagambo ya Tshisekedi ashobora kuba agamije ibintu bitatu.
Icya mbere, gukomeza gushyira ikibazo cy’iburasirazuba bwa Congo mu rwego rw’ubusugire bw’igihugu n’umutekano wacyo, aho kugaragara nk’amakimbirane ashingiye gusa ku bibazo by’imbere mu gihugu.
Icya kabiri, guca intege ububasha bwa politike ya Joseph Kabila, amugaragaza nk’umuntu udafite ubushobozi bwo gufata ibyemezo byigenga.
Icya gatatu, gukomeza gushaka igitutu cya dipolomasi mu biganiro n’abafatanyabikorwa mpuzamahanga, cyane cyane Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n’ibihugu bifite uruhare mu gushaka igisubizo cy’amakimbirane yo mu karere.
Ariko hari n’ingaruka zishobora kubaho: uko Tshisekedi akomeza kwibanda kuri Kabila, ni ko ashobora kurushaho kumwamamaza kurishaho (political visibility), cyane cyane mu gihe FRN yaba ishoboye kwigaragaza nk’ihuriro rifite gahunda ihuriweho.
Umwanzuro: Kabila yaba yarahinduye umukino wa politiki muri Congo?
Ikigaragara ni uko kwinjira kwa Joseph Kabila muri FRN kuzamura urwego rw’isesengura ry’aya makimbirane. Ntabwo ikibazo kikiri ku mikoranire y’imitwe yitwaje intwaro gusa, ahubwo harimo n’ihangana ry’ubutegetsi, ububasha, imbaraga za dipolomasi n’ubushobozi bwo kugena uko ejo hazaza ha Congo hazaba hameze.
Icyakora, kugira ngo hamenyekane niba Kabila yarahinduye koko imiterere y’ubuyobozi bwa FRN, bizasaba gukurikirana uko inshingano za politiki n’iz’igisirikare zigabanywa, uko ihuriro rifata ibyemezo n’uburyo rihuriza hamwe inyungu z’abagize iryo huriro.
Mu isesengura rya geopolitiki, amagambo y’umuyobozi ni ikimenyetso cyo kwitondera, ariko si gihamya ihagije y’ibyo avuga.
Ikibazo gikomeye gisigaye ni iki: Ese Tshisekedi arimo kugaragaza impinduka zabaye mu buyobozi bwa FRN, cyangwa amagambo ye ni uburyo bwo guhangana na politiki nshya ya Joseph Kabila?