Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari (IMF), giteganya ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzakomeza kuzamuka ku muvuduko uri hejuru y’ikigereranyo cy’ibihugu byo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara, nubwo buzamanukaho ugereranyije n’umwaka wa 2025.
Imibare ya IMF yo mu Ukwakira 2026 igaragaza ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwazamutse ku kigero cya 9.4% mu 2025, ariko bukaba buzamanuka ku kigero cya 7.4% mu 2026 na 7.2% mu 2027.
Nubwo iri zamuka rigaragaza ko umuvuduko w’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda uzagenda ugabanuka, igihugu kizakomeza kuba mu bifite ubukungu buzamuka cyane muri Afurika.
Mu gihe ubukungu bw'u Rwanda byitezwe ko buzazamuka ku kigero cya 7.4% mu 2026, ubukungu bw’ibihugu byo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara muri rusange buzazamuka ku kigero cya 4.5% muri uwo mwaka, ndetse n’icyo kigereranyo kikazagumaho mu 2027.
Ibi bivuze ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzazamuka ku muvuduko uruta ikigereranyo cy’akarere ku manota 2.9 ku ijana mu 2026. Mu 2027, buzaba bukiri hejuru y’icyo kigereranyo, nubwo na bwo buzaba bwamanutseho gato.
Mu bihugu bya Afurika bifite ubukungu buteganyijwe kuzamuka cyane mu 2026, Ethiopia iza imbere y’u Rwanda, aho izamuka ry’ubukungu bwayo riteganyijwe kugera kuri 9.2%. Guinea na Benin na byo biri mu bihugu bifite ibigereranyo biri hejuru, aho ubukungu bwabyo buteganyijwe kuzamuka ku kigero cya 7.2% na 7%.
Ugereranyije n’ibihugu bituranye n’u Rwanda, imibare ya IMF igaragaza ko ruzakomeza kuba imbere mu karere mu 2026.
Ubukungu bwa Uganda biteganyijwe ko buzazamuka ku kigero cya 6.2%, ubwa Tanzania bukazazamuka kuri 6%, Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo kuri 5.2%, mu gihe Kenya biteganyijwe ko buzazamuka ku kigero cya 4.5%.
U Burundi buri mu bihugu bituranye n’u Rwanda bifite izamuka rito, kuko ubukungu bwabwo buteganyijwe kuzamuka ku kigero cya 3.6% mu 2026, buvuye kuri 4.2% mu 2025, mbere yo kugera kuri 4.7% mu 2027.
N'ubwo u Rwanda ruzaba ruri imbere y’ibihugu byinshi byo mu karere mu 2026, Uganda iteganyijwe kururusha mu 2027, aho ubukungu bwayo buzazamuka ku kigero cya 9.9%, ugereranyije na 7.2% bw’u Rwanda.
Ubukungu bwa Tanzania bwo buzakomeza kuzamuka ku kigero cya 5.9%, mu gihe ubukungu bwa RDC buzagera kuri 5.7%.
Ku rundi ruhande, hari ibihugu byo muri Afurika biteganyijwe kugira izamuka rito cyane cyangwa ubukungu bwabyo bukamanuka.
Guinée-Equatoriale ni cyo gihugu kiri mu bihe bikomeye kurusha ibindi kuri uru rutonde, kuko ubukungu bwacyo buteganyijwe kumanukaho 1.7% mu 2026, nyuma yo kumanukaho 5.8% mu 2025.
Afurika y’Epfo, nubwo ari kimwe mu bihugu bifite ubukungu bukomeye ku mugabane, biteganyijwe ko ubukungu bwayo buzazamuka ku kigero cya 1% gusa mu 2026. Seychelles na Lesotho na byo bifite ibigereranyo biri hasi, aho ubukungu bwabyo buteganyijwe kuzamuka kuri 1% na 1.1%.
Ni mu gihe Ibirwa bya Maurice na Gabon na byo biri mu bihugu bifite izamuka rito, ku kigero cya 2.7% na 3%.
IMF ivuga ko ubukungu bw’ibihugu byo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara muri rusange buzakomeza kuzamuka, ariko ko iri zamuka ritazaba ringana mu bihugu byose.
Iki kigega kigaragaza ko impinduka mu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga, amafaranga ibihugu bimwe byinjiza mu kohereza ibicuruzwa hanze n’ivugurura ryakozwe mbere byafashije akarere guhangana n’ingaruka z’intambara yo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Icyakora, kiburira ko ibibazo bishobora gukomeza kwiyongera, birimo amafaranga menshi ibihugu bikoresha mu kwishyura imyenda, amadevize make bibitse n’igabanuka ry’inkunga mpuzamahanga. Ibyo bishobora gutuma ibihugu byinshi bibura ubushobozi buhagije bwo guhangana n’ihungabana rishya ry’ubukungu.
IMF isaba ibihugu gukomeza gucunga neza ingengo y’imari, kuzigama amafaranga byinjiza mu buryo bw’igihe gito, gufasha imiryango itishoboye no kugabanya izamuka ry’ibiciro.
Ishimangira kandi ko gushora imari mu bikorwa bibyara umusaruro no guteza imbere abikorera ari ingenzi mu kongera ubukungu burambye no kuzamura imibereho y’abaturage.